Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2019 for Ukraine
Considering that in Ukraine in recent years there can be no talk of financial stability, and the National Bank is only engaged in that it patches holes in the budget, merging loans and foreign exchange reserves, and the hryvnia is supported solely by heroic efforts and only artificially, long-term forecasts on exchange rates can hardly be called comforting.
Another thing is that the state in recent years has become, at last without a frank panic, looking into the future and has shamefully hid from the practice of hiding his eyes when asked this sore point for citizens. And all because in deep economic processes there is a gradual stabilization, which, of course, can not but rejoice.
And even though it does not at all mean that the course will begin to creep down (except for short periods of time, and that is within 0.5-1 hryvnia), this is very good for the country as a whole, since the need to implement quick unpopular measures, substituting the leverage of the national currency is a thing of the past.
Of course, it’s not a fact that it will be forever - over the years, Ukrainians, like no other, have become accustomed to the adage that it’s not worth giving up anything, but, nevertheless, this is really good news about the state as a whole, and the lives of everyone particular citizen in particular.
What specifically prepared for us an empirical course tomorrow, we try to pre-evaluate, at least in general terms.
Forecasts of rating agencies
If you believe Standard & Poor`s at the beginning of 2019, the course will be established at around 27.3 UAH, and at the end of it - at 27.5. Of course, this does not mean at all that Ukraine will suddenly get rid of its traditional seasonal peaks, when in the summer the dollar “falls” and by the New Year, on the contrary, “flies” to heaven.
But already the fact that in comparison with the previous year the difference will be only 40-60 kopecks is for the economy a lot. Although, all these numbers are far from the main point.
The most important thing is that both long-term and short-term credit, as well as sovereign ratings, finally crossed the green line and established in the sector “stably”, signaling to Western investors and creditors that we can deal with. This is an achievement, and although it’s straightforward in the lives of ordinary citizens,so, immediately, certainly, it will not affect, then we will definitely feel it both on the slowing down of inflation, and on the stabilization of prices, which is very good.
What does the government say?
Recently, our managers finally took up their heads and began to realize that the enormous budget deficit in their hands was far from what a healthy state can boast. Therefore, starting from 2017, Danyluk’s ministry began to put in the budget a “bad” rather than optimistic forecast, which Valery Alekseevna so much liked to sin before him.
As a result, the country had more maneuver in this respect, and she began to live by the rule: “I always expect the worst. If it turns out better, I am glad; if it turns out worse, I’m not upset, because I’ve been waiting and ready. ” So in the budget for the 2019th - as much as 30.5 hryvnia per dollar, and even the total increase, compared to the pledged for the current year, as much as 1.2 UAH.
Opinions in the business environment
The opinions of entrepreneurs regarding the forecast of the course for 2019, to be honest, were divided. And much. According to recent NBU surveys among their clients and indirectly - among clients of other banks - some agree with Standard & Poor`s and vote for the level of UAH 27, others are more pessimistic and predict at least 30.
Which of them is right, of course, only time will tell, but I really want the second forecast to remain just a forecast, because our economy may not withstand such a sharp collapse.
What factors influence the course?
Paradoxically, but a fact: what we rejoice about so much will destroy us, financial experts say. The populist measure of a planned and rather tangible increase in the minimum wage in the country will become a double-edged sword.
On the one hand, it’s good - people will start to get more money, finally, the program starts to bring the size of the basic rate in line with at least some realities (although, of course, I really want to look at the one who can actually live on the promised 4.2 thousand , given the current communal and prices).
But, on the other hand, an increase in the amount of money from citizens, according to a long-established tradition, will lead to the fact that they will start buying up all the surpluses of dollars — for that is not enough ...
Accordingly, the shortage of the currency supply will inevitably drag up the exchange rate, which is logical. In addition, a sharp increase in purchasing power will also entail an indirect increase in inflation due to an increase in prices, because entrepreneurs, knowing which country they have to operate, will necessarily react to this situation by changing price tags.
This is such a funny collision - we wanted the best, but it turned out ... Well, in general, we hurried - we didn’t hurry, and it will work out, although we can live with it ...
At the same time, such a state of affairs (well, except for price increases, of course - where have we seen them falling before?) May turn out to be temporary if the next tranche of the IMF comes in to sustain our economy. The pressure on the hryvnia in this case will be reduced, and the people and investors will gain confidence at least in temporary stabilization, which will certainly affect the improvement of the currency climate.
So, assessing all of this, experts agree that even though the forecasts of Western agencies look utopian, our country’s worst fears are unlikely to be seen by our country - the hryvnia will not jump over the threshold set in the budget in any way. At least in the 2019th.